Under
Construction!!!
Back of the Envelope Reasoning
I am interested in Back of the Envelope reasoning -- making quick
quantitative estimates. For example, consider:
Q: How many cars are bought in
the
USA?
A: Population 300 mil, Assume 3
per household,
100 mil household.
Assume 1 car per household
Assume a car lives 10 years on an avg
So, on an average 1/10th of the cars will be replaced any year = 10
million cars
[8 millions in 1997]
[133 million cars nationwide in 2000, Stat Abs, 2002]
The goal of my research is to make computer programs that can
automatically make these estimates. The strategies are often not very
complicated, and an essential thing
in being good at doing these is having a feel for numbers.
Read this to get an overview of the big picture Intro, Description. This was
written for a fellowship application, and is in simple plain english.
Read this to learn about my theory of feel
for numbers. Submitted to the 18th International
Cognitive Science Conferences, 2004.
Created Paritosh, 04/12/03,
6:41pm