My friend Zack has been working down in Austin at a bio lab for the last couple of years, as part of his ongoing attempt to find new and amazing ways to apply his huge brain (he used to make video games!). As part of that work he’s heard much about the potential outbreak of avian flu – which publications like The Economist, Science, and National Geographic have also been reporting on.
Now, others are following suit.
Today, Zack sent out an email which expresses some concerns about popular coverage – in particular, its lack of concrete advice on stemming the spread of disease, should an outbreak occur. Here’s an excerpt:
There’s a simple and low-tech solution to convert a pandemic into merely a very bad flu season: seclusion.
…Fewer interacting people equals less moving virus; it is that simple. You stop a forest fire by starving it of fuel and it’s the same with a virus — the virus’ fuel is YOU, therefore you must not allow yourself to become fuel! It is tempting to say, “Well, if I get sick I’ll seclude myself”; this is a reasonable response during a normal flu season but will be irresponsible if a pandemic strain breaks out. Flu infectivity continues for about a week, but begins at least a day BEFORE the onset of symptoms[3] therefore the only fool proof way to avoid propagating a virulent virus to others is to ensure that you are not infected in the first place.
Being prepared to seclude yourself by storing up food and supplies and planning how you might continue to be productive while minimizing face-to-face interactions is not an indulgent act of paranoid hoarding — it is your civic duty.
…If even a small percentage of the population engaged in prepared seclusion, it might mean hundreds of thousands or millions of lives saved. This is not hyperbole, it is simple mathematics. What has inevitably put the brakes on past pandemics such as bubonic plague and the 1918 flu was unplanned seclusion realized via death and panicking. The plague years and the winter of 1918 are replete with stories of towns and cities worldwide shutting down out of practicality and fear. Why wait until everyone is actually infected and millions are dying to remove the fuel from the fire?
While it may seem paranoid or scary at first glance – I think he makes a sensible argument. Surely one month’s supplies aren’t too hard to set aside, if you assume water is potable and you’ve got electricity or gas to cook with. In fact, compared to hurricane preparedness (which my own relatives in Florida and New Orleans are certainly familiar with), it’s pretty simple.
Could you become fuel? Regardless of an outbreak, it’s worth considering.