Tracking Progress

What Clients and Managers Want to Know

vs. What Can Be Known

Readings

  • These slides
  • Either Rasumusson's Agile Samurai, Chapters 7, 8, 9
  • Or his ten tips

The Problem

The Wrong Answer

http://www.total-quality-management-software.com/gantt-chart-examples.asp

Lies, Damn Lies, and Schedules

Hallucinatory and Harmful

Lies My Schedule Told Me

  • "It's on the plan, so it will happen."
  • "Nothing was missed."
  • "No need to panic."
  • "If things slip a little, the developers can catch up."

A Schedule Math Question

The first set of requirements slips one day.
Predict the project end date.

Why Schedules Don't Work

The Cone of Uncertainty

“Schedule Estimation and Uncertainty Surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty.” Todd Little. IEEE Software May/June 2006

Estimation in Reality

“Schedule Estimation and Uncertainty Surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty.” Todd Little. IEEE Software May/June 2006

Why Schedules Don't Work

An estimate is the most optimistic prediction that has a non-zero probability of coming true. Tom DeMarco, Controlling Software Projects, Prentice Hall, 1982
  • A schedule is a set of commitments based on estimates made at the time of least knowledge

But The Questions Remain

The Agile Alternative: Overview

Velocity

  • Velocity = total points for stories done in last iteration
  • Done = tested and deployed
    • Tested includes unit and acceptance tests
    • Deployed means on target devices
  • No partial credit for stories almost done
  • Velocity is an emergent property of the project
    • There is no accelerator pedal

Burn-Up Charts

http://rapidapplicationdevelopment.blogspot.com/2008/10/forget-burndown-use-burnup-charts.html
  • Quick visualization of total scope and velocity
  • Top line changes when you add and remove stories
  • Top line is the only one you can control

When Scope is Too Big

Velocity does not meet scope in time
Miss deadline? Can you?
Rush? You like bugs? Losing your best coders?
De-scope. Normally your only option. Do it early!

Schedule Math Revisited

The first set of requirements slips one day.
Predict the project end date.

Backlog Math

20 total points in backlog, predicted velocity is 5.
4 points are actually done in Iteration 1.
Predict the project end date.

But, But, But

At Last, Answers

  • When will the project be done?
    Whenever you say it must be done
  • How are things going?
    It's all on the velocity charts!
  • How many people do you need?
    Five