- These slides
- The Agile Samurai: Chapters 7, 8, 9

- These slides
- The Agile Samurai: Chapters 7, 8, 9

An estimate is the most optimistic prediction that has a non-zero probability of coming true. Tom DeMarco,Controlling Software Projects, Prentice Hall, 1982

- If you can't trust programmer estimates of how long something will take, what can you do?

- A measure of
**relative**effort- 1 point for the easiest stories, 2 for the next, then 3, 5, 8, ...
- modified Fibonacci numbers
- If you go much past 8 you're probably have epics that need to be split

- Points are not a measure of time
- Points are not comparable between teams or projects

- Easiest to hardest, team consensus

- Left to right, Fibonacci only, round up if necessary
- A 2 + a 3 should be about a 5

- 1 x 1 + 1 x 2 + 4 x 3 + 5 x 5 + 1 x 8 = 48
- That's how much work you have to do

- Sum of points for stories done in last iteration
- Done means "tested and deployed"
- No partial credit!
- Don't average over previous iterations

- Remaining points ÷ velocity = how many iterations needed to finish

- Simple visualizations of progress in story points
- Each iteration:
- Subtract points for stories done
- Add and subtract points for stories added and removed from backlog
- Plot

- Plot remaining points
- Use
**most recent**velocity (not average) to predict completion - Panic and rescope early!

- Each iteration: plot total points in backlog, total points completed
- Shows interaction of scope and true velocity
- The only line you can control is the backlog size

Thanks to Hakim El Hattab for the slide template